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Future Status of Airborne Infectious Diseases: Evolution and Eradication

In: Global Interdependence

Author

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  • Masayuki Kakehashi
  • Fumitaka Yoshinaga

    (Hiroshima University School of Medicine, Department of Public Health)

Abstract

We predicted the future status of airborne infectious diseases in a human population using a mathematical model of infectious diseases. The predictions were derived from the viewpoints of evolution and eradication. We predicted that, from an evolutionary viewpoint, pathogens evolve to be less virulent as the host life span increases. The condition for successful eradication was derived mathematically: susceptible host density in the absence of the pathogen should be reduced less than that in the presence of the pathogen. The predictions were considered to be valid for a wide range of infectious diseases. The extent to which the history of man and pathogens can be verified by the predictions was also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Masayuki Kakehashi & Fumitaka Yoshinaga, 1992. "Future Status of Airborne Infectious Diseases: Evolution and Eradication," Springer Books, in: David Crookall & Kiyoshi Arai (ed.), Global Interdependence, pages 331-331, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-4-431-68189-2_50
    DOI: 10.1007/978-4-431-68189-2_50
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