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Combined Forecast of China’s Steel Demand

In: Liss 2014

Author

Listed:
  • Yuyan Weng

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Li Zhou

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Sheng Zhou

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Tianyu Qi

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

This research conducts an error analysis between forecasting value and actual value of steel demand in China both in 2010, which is based on the analysis of forecasting methods and their results of Chinese steel demand in the existing studies, and then forecasts China’s steel demand in 2015 by making use of a combined forecasting method. The combined forecasting method includes two stages. In the first stage, with reference to actual steel demand of China in 2010, a threshold is set and some forecasting results are selected according to the error between forecasting value and actual value of steel demand of each method. In the second stage, weights of combined forecast of corresponding selected methods are determined which are based on the error. And the final demand of China’s steel in 2015 is forecasted through combined forecasting method.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuyan Weng & Li Zhou & Sheng Zhou & Tianyu Qi, 2015. "Combined Forecast of China’s Steel Demand," Springer Books, in: Zhenji Zhang & Zuojun Max Shen & Juliang Zhang & Runtong Zhang (ed.), Liss 2014, edition 127, pages 1673-1678, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-662-43871-8_241
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-43871-8_241
    as

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