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Datierungsverfahren

In: Konjunkturzyklen

Author

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  • Claude Diebolt

    (Universität Straßburg)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Die Untersuchung präsentiert – als originelles Beispiel – eine alternative Chronologie der industriellen Konjunkturzyklen in den USA zwischen 1884 und 1940. Auf der Grundlage des Industrieproduktionsindex von Miron und Romer sowie auf Methoden von Bry-Boschan und Hamilton werden neue Hoch- und Tiefpunkte identifiziert. Die Ergebnisse weichen systematisch von den NBER-Referenzdaten ab, insbesondere bei den Tiefpunkten, die in der neuen Datierung früher liegen. Dadurch ändern sich Aussagen zur Dauer und Häufigkeit von Rezessionen und Expansionsphasen. Insgesamt zeigt die Studie die Relevanz robuster Datierungsverfahren für das Verständnis historischer Konjunkturverläufe.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Diebolt, 2025. "Datierungsverfahren," Springer Books, in: Konjunkturzyklen, chapter 0, pages 73-91, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-658-49906-8_6
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-658-49906-8_6
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