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Improved Grey Forecasting Model for Taiwan’s Green GDP Accounting

In: The 19th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

Author

Listed:
  • Shin-li Lu

    (Aletheia University)

  • Ching-I Lin

    (Lunghwa University of Science and Technology)

  • Shih-hung Tai

    (Lunghwa University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

This paper applies the grey forecasting model to forecast the green GDP accounting of Taiwan from 2002 to 2010. Green GDP accounting is an effective economic indicator of human environmental and natural resources protection. Generally, Green GDP accounting is defined as the traditional GDP deduces the natural resources depletion and environmental degradation. This paper modifies the original GM(1,1) model to improve prediction accuracy in green GDP accounting and also provide a value reference for government in drafting relevant economic and environmental policies. Empirical study shows that the mean absolute percentage error of RGM(1,1) model is 2.05 % lower than GM(1,1) and AGM(1,1), respectively. Results are very encouraging as the RGM(1,1) forecasting model clearly enhances the prediction accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Shin-li Lu & Ching-I Lin & Shih-hung Tai, 2013. "Improved Grey Forecasting Model for Taiwan’s Green GDP Accounting," Springer Books, in: Ershi Qi & Jiang Shen & Runliang Dou (ed.), The 19th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 1575-1584, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-642-38391-5_166
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-38391-5_166
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