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Modelling Imports and Exports of Goods in France, Distinguishing Between Intra and Extra Euro Area Trade

In: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?

Author

Listed:
  • Bertrand Pluyaud

    (Banque de France)

Abstract

Summary This paper presents equations for intra and extra euro area trade for France. Volumes and prices of imports and exports of goods are modelled. Dynamic simulations, residual tests and rolling forecasts indicate that the equations have satisfactory forecasting properties. However, trends and dummy variables are often added and competitiveness effects are not always well captured, probably due to inadequate data. Among other results, we find a stronger long run elasticity to price competitiveness for intra than for extra euro area exports, and positive contributions of price competitiveness to non energy import growth since 1999, probably due to evolutions in costs rather than in exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Pluyaud, 2006. "Modelling Imports and Exports of Goods in France, Distinguishing Between Intra and Extra Euro Area Trade," Springer Books, in: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, pages 325-359, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-540-32611-3_14
    DOI: 10.1007/3-540-32611-1_14
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    Cited by:

    1. Tkačevs, Olegs & Christodoulopoulou, Styliani & Bobeica, Elena, 2016. "The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1941, European Central Bank.

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