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Influence of External Factors on Inter-City Influenza Spread in Russia: A Modeling Approach

In: Trends in Biomathematics: Modeling, Optimization and Computational Problems

Author

Listed:
  • V. N. Leonenko

    (ITMO University)

  • Yu. K. Novoselova

    (ITMO University)

Abstract

The work is dedicated to the mathematical modeling of inter-city influenza spread in Russian Federation. The authors combine the local SEIR model of the influenza outbreak in an urban environment and the model of inter-city virus spread via migration flows, calibrating the resulting multicomponent model to long-term data on weekly acute respiratory infection incidence in 41 Russian cities. The aims of the research are: (a) to compare the modeling output with the observed picture of the virus spread and to assess its accuracy; (b) to assess the influence of the quality of transport data on the output; (c) to assess the applicability of the model for predicting influenza spread in Russia and to discuss the ways of changing the model to enhance its predictive ability.

Suggested Citation

  • V. N. Leonenko & Yu. K. Novoselova, 2018. "Influence of External Factors on Inter-City Influenza Spread in Russia: A Modeling Approach," Springer Books, in: Rubem P. Mondaini (ed.), Trends in Biomathematics: Modeling, Optimization and Computational Problems, pages 375-389, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-91092-5_26
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-91092-5_26
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