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Do Google Trends Help to Forecast Sovereign Risk in Europe?

In: Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos González-Fernández

    (Universidad de León)

  • Carmen González-Velasco

    (Universidad de León)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze whether internet activity, as measured through Google data, influences the evolution of sovereign bond yields. For this purpose, we focus on ten European countries. We run VAR models and Granger causality tests between the Google Search Volume Index (GSVI) and sovereign risk. The VAR models and the causality tests for five core and five peripheral countries suggest that in the latter, especially Greece, Google data have had the highest positive impact on sovereign yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos González-Fernández & Carmen González-Velasco, 2018. "Do Google Trends Help to Forecast Sovereign Risk in Europe?," Springer Books, in: Marco Corazza & María Durbán & Aurea Grané & Cira Perna & Marilena Sibillo (ed.), Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, pages 413-417, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-89824-7_74
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-89824-7_74
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