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Strategic Economic Decision-Making-I Chapter Examples

In: The Manual of Strategic Economic Decision Making

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  • Jeff Grover

    (Grover Group, Inc.)

Abstract

This chapter republishes the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) examples in Grover (2013) using the 9-step protocol of that manual. Manufacturing Example, Political Science Example, Gambling Example, Publicly Traded Company Example, Insurance Example, Acts of Terrorism Example, Currency Wars Example, College Entrance Exams Example, Special Forces Assessment and Selection, Two-Node Example, and Special Forces Assessment and Selection Three-Node Example. This 9-step protocol includes: Step 1: Identify a population of interest, Step 2: Specify a BBN with joint and/or disjoint Nodes, Step 3: Slice through each node, and identify at a minimum, two mutually exclusive or disjoint (unconditional) events, which are the subsets of our population, Step 4: Conduct the random experiment, Step 5: Determine frequency counts, Step 6: Determine prior or unconditional probabilities. Step 7: Determine likelihood probabilities, Step 8: Determine joint and marginal probabilities, and Step 9: Determine posterior probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff Grover, 2016. "Strategic Economic Decision-Making-I Chapter Examples," Springer Books, in: The Manual of Strategic Economic Decision Making, chapter 0, pages 65-93, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-48414-3_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-48414-3_5
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