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Modeling the Case of Early Detection of Ebola Virus Disease

In: Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Chowell

    (Arizona State University)

  • Muntaser Safan

    (Arizona State University
    Mansoura University
    Umm Al-Qura University)

  • Carlos Castillo-Chavez

    (Arizona State University)

Abstract

The most recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we develop and analyze a mathematical model to assess the impact of early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals on the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in West Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing integrated control measures of early diagnosis and isolation. The mathematical analysis shows a threshold where early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals, combined with a sufficient level of effective isolation, can lead to an epidemic control of Ebola virus disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Chowell & Muntaser Safan & Carlos Castillo-Chavez, 2016. "Modeling the Case of Early Detection of Ebola Virus Disease," Springer Books, in: Gerardo Chowell & James M. Hyman (ed.), Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, pages 57-70, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-40413-4_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_5
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