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A Reality of Its Own

In: Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Rothenberg

    (Georgia State University)

Abstract

In September 2014, the CDC published a supplement to the MMWR that announced a worst-case estimate of 1.4 million cases of EbolaEbola in Liberia and Sierra Leone (Meltzer et al., MMWR 63(3):1–14, 2014, [1]). The epidemic was then 6 months old and 8,000 cases had been reported. It was estimated that at least 2.5 times that many had occurred, and the 1.4 million was based on the then estimated incidence of 21,000 cases in 6 months. The method was mathematically simple—based primarily on mean incubation period, contact index, and specific sets of patient circumstances—but the details were complicated.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Rothenberg, 2016. "A Reality of Its Own," Springer Books, in: Gerardo Chowell & James M. Hyman (ed.), Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, pages 1-4, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-40413-4_1
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_1
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