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Chance and Randomness

In: Uncertainty

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  • William Briggs

Abstract

Randomness is not a thing, neither is chance. Both are measures of uncertainty and express ignorance of causes. Because randomness and chance are not ontologically real, they cannot cause anything to happen. Immaterial measures of information are never and can never be physically operative. It is always a mistake, and the cause of vast confusion, to say things like “due to chance”, “games of chance”, “caused by random (chance, spontaneous) mutations”, “these results are significant”, “these results are not explainable by chance”, “random effects”, “random variable”, and the like. All this holds in quantum mechanics, where the evidence for physical chance appears strongest. What also follows, although it is not at first apparent, is that simulations are not needed. This statement will appear striking and even obviously false, until it is understood that the so-called “randomness” driving simulations is anything but random. Coincidences are defined and their relation to cause explained. The ties between information theory and probability are given.

Suggested Citation

  • William Briggs, 2016. "Chance and Randomness," Springer Books, in: Uncertainty, chapter 0, pages 87-112, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-39756-6_6
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-39756-6_6
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