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Consolidating Multiple Naïve Forecasts with Monte Carlo

In: Business Statistics for Competitive Advantage with Excel 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Cynthia Fraser

    (University of Virginia, McIntire School of Commerce)

Abstract

The modeling team compared export market forecasts for the U.S. and Latin America, shown in Figure 6.1. Exports to the U.S. were much more consistent, stable and predictable. The trend accounted for 93% of the variation in U.S. exports, and the margin of error in forecasts was small, .24 ML. However, forecast growth was low, 4 to 5% per year. Exports to Latin America differed. While the trend accounted for 92% of the variation in Latin American exports, the margin of error was larger, .51ML. Yet future growth was higher, 5 to 9% per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Cynthia Fraser, 2016. "Consolidating Multiple Naïve Forecasts with Monte Carlo," Springer Books, in: Business Statistics for Competitive Advantage with Excel 2016, chapter 0, pages 175-186, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-32185-1_6
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-32185-1_6
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