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Fitting Financial Returns Distributions: A Mixture Normality Approach

In: Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance

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  • Riccardo Bramante

    (University Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Department of Statistical Sciences)

  • Diego Zappa

    (University Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Department of Statistical Sciences)

Abstract

An important research field in finance is the identification of probability distribution model that fits at the best the empirical distribution of time series returns. In this paper we propose the use of mixtures of truncated normal distributions in modelling returns. An optimization algorithm has been developed to obtain the best fit by using the minimum distance approach. Empirical results show evidence of the capability of the method to fit return distributions at a satisfactory level, completely maintaining local normality properties in the model. Moreover, the model provides a good tail fit thus improving the accuracy of Value at Risk estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Bramante & Diego Zappa, 2014. "Fitting Financial Returns Distributions: A Mixture Normality Approach," Springer Books, in: Marco Corazza & Claudio Pizzi (ed.), Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, pages 81-88, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-02499-8_7
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-02499-8_7
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