Large-Scale Multi-modal Evacuation Analysis with an Application to Hamburg

Evacuation is one possible option when facing natural or man-made risks. The evacuation of a building block, part of a city, or even a whole city or region is a far-reaching measure. It is usually the last measure and only taken when a social catastrophe is impending. The Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg was hit by flooding in 1961. The homes of 50,000 people were destroyed and a total of 315 persons died. The situation today is not comparable to the situation in the early 1960s. Back then, many buildings were still barracks and built or repaired just after World War II. First and foremost, an elaborated early warning system was established. Nevertheless, evacuation might still be necessary when dikes are damaged. These few considerations show the complex context, in which decisions about evacuations are made. In order to reduce the complexity for the decision makers, simulations for the prediction of evacuation times and potential congestion or delays are one option. They can provide objective criteria and make the consequences of certain alternatives more intuitive by visualizing them based on well-known representations of the city like street maps. We present an example for Hamburg Wilhelmsburg, i.e. the simulation of multi-modal regional evacuation, in this contribution.