Applications of the Inverse Problem of Pollution Propagation

The quantification of the potential of different offshore domains to serve as a remote source of danger to the vulnerable areas through pollution propagation is developed into a technique for the environmental management of open sea regions. The technique focuses on the identification of areas (of reduced risk) that provide the lowest level of environmental concerns for offshore activities. An approximate solution to the relevant inverse problem is constructed by means of statistical analysis of a large number of Lagrangian trajectories of pollution particles. The method contains an eddy-resolving circulation model, a scheme for the tracking of Lagrangian trajectories, a technique for the calculation of quantities characterizing the potential of different sea areas to supply adverse impacts, and routines to construct the optimum fairway. The distributions of the probability of current-driven transport of pollution to vulnerable domains and its propagation time are used for the optimization of the location of potentially dangerous activities. This technique is applied for the optimization of marine fairways to minimize the risk to high-value areas in two regions of the Baltic Sea. The environmental advantage is expressed in terms of the probability of pollution transport to the nearshore and the associated time (particle age). In the Gulf of Finland the use of the optimum fairway would decrease the probability of coastal pollution by 40 % or increase the average time it takes for the pollution to reach the coast from 5.3 to about 9 days.