Future Pathways for Mediterranean Mountains: A Comparative and Participatory Foresight Approach

The peripheral status and ecological fragility of the Mediterranean mountain territories render them both vulnerable to climate change and promising sites for environmental regeneration. Foresight exercises, including scenario development, are instrumental in exploring options to address the socio-economic and environmental challenges these regions face. This chapter draws on three Mediterranean case studies from Crete (Greece), Serra da Estrela (Portugal), and the North Apennines (Italy) to comparatively explore the role of participatory foresight analysis in unveiling the future trajectories and long-term visions for mountain regions. The foresight groups in each of the three study areas were developed under the MOVING Project multi-actor platforms (MAPs). The MAPs revolved around the value chains of Serra da Estrela PDO cheese, chestnut flour, and carob flour in Portugal, Italy, and Greece, respectively. In the chapter, we outline the limitations and strengths of the co-construction process in each case study and discuss the role of the foresight groups as collective actors and spaces for experimentation and transformative change. By comparing three different case examples, our comparative analysis critically explores the potential of participatory foresight analysis to identify plausible socio-economic pathways, key practices, and policies for a sustainable future.