IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/sprchp/978-3-032-05551-4_4.html

Climate-Related Extensions of the Lee-Carter Model

In: New Perspectives in Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance

Author

Listed:
  • Imma Lory Aprea

    (University of Naples “Parthenope”, Department of Economics, Law, Cybersecurity, and Sports Sciences)

  • Francesca Perla

    (University of Naples “Parthenope”, Department of Management and Quantitative Studies)

  • Raffaele Clemente Petrella

    (University of Naples “Parthenope”, Department of Economic and Legal Studies)

  • Mariafortuna Pietroluongo

    (University of Naples “Parthenope”, Department of Business and Economic Studies)

  • Salvatore Scognamiglio

    (University of Naples “Parthenope”, Department of Management and Quantitative Studies)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate risk-related variables on mortality patterns across diverse population groups. An innovative version of the Lee-Carter model is proposed, incorporating a climate risk-related variable - specifically, $$\text {CO2}$$ CO2 emissions - to enhance the accuracy of mortality prediction. A three-step estimation process using Ordinary Least Squares is employed to calibrate the model parameters. Experiments conducted on data from 42 populations indicate that integrating climate risk information leads to more accurate mortality predictions. Especially, combining climate variables with macroeconomic indicators such as GDP yields further improvements in forecast performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Imma Lory Aprea & Francesca Perla & Raffaele Clemente Petrella & Mariafortuna Pietroluongo & Salvatore Scognamiglio, 2025. "Climate-Related Extensions of the Lee-Carter Model," Springer Books, in: Michele La Rocca & Massimiliano Menzietti & Cira Perna & Marilena Sibillo (ed.), New Perspectives in Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, pages 38-49, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-032-05551-4_4
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-05551-4_4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-032-05551-4_4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.