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Could COVID-19 Mask and Vaccine Mandates Have Made a Difference if They Were Rolled Out Earlier?

In: Trends in Biomathematics: Modeling Health Across Ecology, Social Interactions, and Cells

Author

Listed:
  • Stacey Smith

    (The University of Ottawa, Department of Mathematics and Faculty of Medicine)

  • Pei Yuan

    (Shenzhen University, School of Mathematical Sciences)

  • Jeta Molla

    (York University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics)

  • Aiyush Bansal

    (Unity Health Toronto)

  • Zahra Khanzad

    (York University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics)

Abstract

Hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID-19 in Canada declined after the first wave, thanks to nonpharmaceutical interventions and the vaccination campaign starting in December 2020, despite the emergence of highly contagious variants. We used an age-structured extended susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered compartment model to mimic the transmission of COVID-19 in Ontario from March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021. We examined several counterfactual scenarios: (1) no mask mandates, (2) no vaccination, (3) instigating the mask mandate a month earlier and (4) rolling out the vaccine a month earlier. A 1-month-earlier vaccination program could have significantly decreased the number of cases and hospitalisations, but 1-month-earlier mask mandates would not have. It follows that the mandates that were implemented in practice were not optimal, but mostly performed well. Our model demonstrates that mask mandates played a vital role in saving lives in the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak and that the vaccination programme was crucial to averting subsequent cases and hospitalisations after it was implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Stacey Smith & Pei Yuan & Jeta Molla & Aiyush Bansal & Zahra Khanzad, 2025. "Could COVID-19 Mask and Vaccine Mandates Have Made a Difference if They Were Rolled Out Earlier?," Springer Books, in: Rubem P. Mondaini (ed.), Trends in Biomathematics: Modeling Health Across Ecology, Social Interactions, and Cells, pages 275-287, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-97461-8_15
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-97461-8_15
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