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Using the Gompertz Distribution to Explore the Impact of Increasing Life Expectancy on the Old-Age Dependency Ratio

In: Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance

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  • Peter Pflaumer

    (Technical University of Dortmund, Department of Statistics)

Abstract

The old-age dependency ratios are indicators of the number of el-derly people who are generally economically inactive compared to the number of people of working age. They significantly affect the financial burden of social public pension schemes, making it essential to analyze the influence of mortality on this ratio. In this paper, the Gompertz model is used to investigate the effect of mortality and fertility on the old-age dependency ratio, with a focus on the impact of changes in life expectancy. Elasticity formulas are derived to analyze this effect, and the results indicate that an increase in life expectancy leads to a considerable rise in the old-age dependency ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Pflaumer, 2024. "Using the Gompertz Distribution to Explore the Impact of Increasing Life Expectancy on the Old-Age Dependency Ratio," Springer Books, in: Marco Corazza & Frédéric Gannon & Florence Legros & Claudio Pizzi & Vincent Touzé (ed.), Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, pages 255-260, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-64273-9_42
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-64273-9_42
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