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On the Parameter Significance in Pandemic Modelling

In: Integral Methods in Science and Engineering

Author

Listed:
  • B. E. J. Bodmann

    (Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul)

  • P. J. Harris

    (University of Brighton)

Abstract

In the present work the pertinent question of what is the best parameter choice in a mathematical pandemic model for time evolution simulations and effective control strategy planning. To this end an interacting flux model based on the SIRD categories is presented, further an analytical representation for its solution is derived and the significance of the different parameters on the time evolution characteristics is analyzed. The mathematical structure of the model has a point kinetics structure where its solution provides estimates for the susceptible, infected, recovered and dead categories such that the data they provide is comparable with results from statistical data acquisition and analysis. Available data from the initial period of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are presented and explored for the evaluation and interpretation of the presented model.

Suggested Citation

  • B. E. J. Bodmann & P. J. Harris, 2023. "On the Parameter Significance in Pandemic Modelling," Springer Books, in: Christian Constanda & Bardo E.J. Bodmann & Paul J. Harris (ed.), Integral Methods in Science and Engineering, chapter 0, pages 51-66, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-34099-4_4
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-34099-4_4
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