Asia and the Global Effects of an EU Energy Import Boycott of Russia

The economic effects of an EU energy import boycott are analyzed in a special way, namely what the effects of oil and gas are on the respective world and regional markets and to what extent this EU measure is suitable to significantly reduce Russia’s state revenues and to dry up Russia’s financial capacity to wage war. On the one hand, certain perspectives of the EU are listed, and on the other hand, the possibilities for Russia to divert sales in the direction of Asia are emphasized; in this context, India and China play an important role. It is shown that an EU energy embargo reduces Russia’s energy-based state revenues only slightly in the medium term, whereas Germany and the EU face serious adjustment problems especially in the case of a gas import embargo. An EU energy import boycott ultimately does little to help in terms of Russia’s financing of the war from a Western perspective; at the same time, Russia’s increased oil supplies to India—in addition to its existing military equipment dependence—will increase Indian dependence on Russia as the world’s largest democracy. This is just as little in the interest of the West as a strengthening of the Russia-China axis, which is foreseeable, so that the net benefit of an EU energy import embargo against Russia is likely to be negative in the long term.