Turning Points in the Russo-Ukrainian War

The following analysis first addresses the “turning point” perspective in the context of Russia and Ukraine, with cyber warfare in particular being a relatively new aspect of the current conflict; in addition, bilateral perspectives on German-Russian trade and multilateral perspectives are examined. This is followed by a look at fundamental energy issues for Europe and the West and by the question of the extent to which a German energy import boycott against Russia—or an EU embargo—makes sense or what effects could be expected here. The focus is subsequently directed to the possibility of a Russian supply boycott. This is followed by an analysis of Asia and of the global effects of an EU energy boycott against Russia, as well as a broader analysis of EU-China-Russia. Finally, refugee and immigration issues are addressed, as well as selected scenario aspects and perspectives for a new global economic order. Overall, the Russo-Ukrainian war leads to global position shifts in the longer term; the decline in German real income is incidentally estimated at around −6% in the case of an energy import boycott against Russia, which is higher in percentage terms than the decline in real GDP in Russia as a result of the boycott (a sanction in which one harms oneself more than the intended target of the sanction measures should be carefully reconsidered).