Scenario Perspectives

Depending on the duration of the war in Ukraine—and conceivable levels of escalation with regard to the West—various scenario perspectives for Europe and the wider world start to emerge. Russia could declare a unilateral cease-fire in the relatively short term, which would presumably pose certain problems for Ukraine, as its leadership likes to recapture territories occupied by Russia; an outcome which is hardly possible without continuous and massive military aid from the West. The war could also drag on for years to come and cause a temporary destabilization of the world economy with considerable swings in (increased) commodity prices. From a Western perspective, it is important that Ukraine remains an independent state, which probably amounts to long-term economic and military support being provided. At the same time, the changed situation in Ukraine and Russia’s invasion of the country have created a new regional conflict in Europe. Here, the EU, the UK, and the US will be challenged, whereby the field of conflict represents many risks for all parties. In Washington DC, the originally apparent primary focus on China as a political opponent has thus become more complex. Russia, for its part, has little prospect of finding many economic or political heavyweight allies on the international stage. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are working together in the framework of the BRICS group of states, but this will hardly suffice for a close political alliance beyond the unequal pair of China and Russia. China and India have an ongoing territorial dispute including over parts of the Kashmir region; for Brazil good economic and political relations with the US, the UK, and the EU are more important—and more geographically relevant—than relations with Russia or China. The logic of the economic gravity models for trade and direct investment, which emphasizes the distance of the respective country pairs or the negative role of transport and transaction costs in addition to the level of real income at home and in the respective partner country, will also have to be observed in the twenty-first century. In the field of climate protection policy, the Russo-Ukrainian war will make efficient cooperation between the G20 countries much more difficult for years to come. Russia, as an economically weak power, is likely to present itself even more strongly than before as a destructive, destabilizing power—promoting fake news dissemination—in Western countries if the conflict situation with the West continues. It would be all the more important that traditionally conservative parties in the US and the UK do not continue to themselves seek to gain influence and maintain power including via fake news, as was the case with Donald Trump in the United States and with Boris Johnson and colleagues during and since the BREXIT campaign. Those who disregard the facts and the truth, and seek to manipulate them, tend to weaken overall progress in the fields of science and technology—and thus the economic and military strength of the respective country in the long term. For many years to come, global arms spending ratios will continue to increase unless a new, peaceful, and reformed Russia seeks sustainable cooperation with the West as a democracy and constitutional state in the medium and long term.