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Potential Severity, Mitigation, and Control of Omicron Waves Depending on Pre-existing Immunity and Immune Evasion

In: Trends in Biomathematics: Stability and Oscillations in Environmental, Social, and Biological Models

Author

Listed:
  • F. A. Bartha

    (University of Szeged, Bolyai Institute)

  • P. Boldog

    (University of Szeged, Bolyai Institute)

  • T. Tekeli

    (University of Szeged, Bolyai Institute)

  • Z. Vizi

    (University of Szeged, Bolyai Institute)

  • A. Dénes

    (University of Szeged, Bolyai Institute)

  • G. Röst

    (University of Szeged, Bolyai Institute)

Abstract

We assess the potential consequences of the upcoming SARS-CoV-2 waves caused by the Omicron variant. Our results suggest that even in those regions where the Delta variant is controlled at the moment by a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and population immunity, a significant Omicron wave can be expected. We stratify the population according to prior immunity status, and characterize the possible outbreaks depending on the population level of pre-existing immunity and the immune evasion capability of Omicron. We point out that two countries having similar effective reproduction numbers for the Delta variant can experience very different Omicron waves in terms of peak time, peak size and total number of infections among the population at risk.

Suggested Citation

  • F. A. Bartha & P. Boldog & T. Tekeli & Z. Vizi & A. Dénes & G. Röst, 2022. "Potential Severity, Mitigation, and Control of Omicron Waves Depending on Pre-existing Immunity and Immune Evasion," Springer Books, in: Rubem P. Mondaini (ed.), Trends in Biomathematics: Stability and Oscillations in Environmental, Social, and Biological Models, pages 407-419, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-12515-7_22
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-12515-7_22
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