A Simulation-Based Framework for the Adequacy Assessment of Integrated Energy Systems Exposed to Climate Change

Integrated Energy Systems (IESs) combine different energy systems, such as electric power systems, natural gas networks, hydrogen production systems, etc. They are expected to provide reliable and economic energy dispatchment, while minimizing environmental impacts. However, the integration of energy systems into an IES increases their vulnerability to cascading effects triggered by extreme natural events of increased frequency and severity, due to climate change. In this chapter, we present a simulation-based adequacy assessment framework that allows for the consideration of the impact of future climate conditions (such as temperature increase) on IESs efficiency, giving due account to the inevitable uncertainties affecting the climate evolution process. The framework operationalizes into an IES simulation loop, in which climate conditions profiles are injected and adequacy assessment performance indicators computed. As case study, we consider a realistic IES composed of two Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Plants (CCGTs), a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), two Wind Farms (WFs), a Solar Photovoltaics field (PV), and a Power-to-Gas station (P2G), under three temperature change projections within pathways of global future development (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, and SSP5 8.5) taken from the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results of the case study demonstrate that the proposed simulation-based framework for adequacy assessment allows accounting for the effects of climate change on energy supply and the related uncertainty connected to future climate change scenarios, providing information useful for energy systems design and layout planning with proper adaptation measures to reduce risks and losses.