Disruptive Technologies

History shows that sudden disruptions are very rare in the energy industry, due to the relatively slow diffusion process of new technologies. Technological change is always ongoing but has remained manageable and predictable so far, given the long technical lifetime of assets in the energy industry. However, in some sectors disruption could be imminent, largely driven by consumers, because their purchasing decisions are not only guided by economic principles. Rooftop solar has already demonstrated its disruptive potential between 2008 and 2012, mainly triggered by generous government incentives at that time. In the forthcoming decade, a new disruptive wave could be triggered by easy-to-install solar kits and affordable multi-junction cells, which increase the amount of solar energy per square metre that a panel can harvest. Moreover, current technology trends indicate that a new wave of electrification is imminent, this time targeting the transport and heating sectors. This by itself would constitute a major disruption of the energy industry. Instead, whether hydrogen could also give rise to a disruption will mainly depend on energy policy and how seriously the fight against global warming is pursued.