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The Impact of Regional Integration on Trade and Economic Development: A Tripartite FTA Gravity Model for the Future of the AfCFTA

In: The Palgrave Handbook of Africa’s Economic Sectors

Author

Listed:
  • Eduard Marinov

    (New Bulgarian University)

  • Dimitar Zlatinov

    (Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”)

Abstract

The chapter assesses the impact of regional trade integration in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the Southern African Development Community, and the East African Community on exports of goods and services of member countries. We have adapted the gravity model of trade using a cross-country regression approach and data for the period 2000–2017. The objective is to assess the manner in which trade among member countries has been facilitated since joining regional trade agreements. The results show that the success of the trade communities under review depends on initial economic performance—trade integration has a less pronounced effect. It could lead to a lower real growth in exports for countries with higher exports before entering, thus rendering them inefficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduard Marinov & Dimitar Zlatinov, 2022. "The Impact of Regional Integration on Trade and Economic Development: A Tripartite FTA Gravity Model for the Future of the AfCFTA," Springer Books, in: Evelyn F. Wamboye & Bichaka Fayissa (ed.), The Palgrave Handbook of Africa’s Economic Sectors, pages 769-792, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-75556-0_30
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-75556-0_30
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