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Oil Price Scenarios: Economic and Fiscal Impacts on the Kuwait Economy

In: Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics

Author

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  • Sedat Dizmen

    (The Supreme Council for Planning and Development)

Abstract

This chapter examines major highlights on macroeconomic and fiscal issues affecting the Kuwaiti economy based on different oil price assumptions. Forecast, analysis and simulations are performed using the Kuwait SCPD macro model. For the Kuwait economy, the author has explored three scenarios corresponding to a low, medium and high oil price assumptions. The author analysed a price fall particularly in 2019–2020, which is a stylized representation of the oil market change over the horizon 2030. Unsurprisingly, the results show that such an oil price drop has direct effects in Kuwait, since Kuwait’s export is dependent on oil. By researching the relationship of oil prices to oil sector dependence, it becomes evident that Kuwait has a large portion of oil-related sectors in the economy and that indicates high elasticity of both GDP and government revenues to oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Sedat Dizmen, 2021. "Oil Price Scenarios: Economic and Fiscal Impacts on the Kuwait Economy," Springer Books, in: Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz (ed.), Handbook of Research on Emerging Theories, Models, and Applications of Financial Econometrics, edition 1, pages 109-140, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-54108-8_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-54108-8_5
    as

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