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Modeling and Simulation

In: Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences

Author

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  • Richard M. Adler

    (DecisionPath)

Abstract

The key to bending the Law of Unintended Consequences (LUC) in the face of bounded rationality is to improve anticipation of the consequences of critical decisions. This chapter surveys leading modeling and simulation techniques that enable this effort. Section 8.1 explains why these tools are superior to predictive analytics for projecting outcomes of critical decisions. Sections 8.2 through 8.4 present synopses of individual techniques. Each synopsis introduces a recurring analytical problem that arises when trying to anticipate outcomes for critical decisions. It then explains how the given modeling or simulation technique alleviates that aspect of bounded rationality. Section 8.5 summarizes the “sweet spots” for the various modeling and simulation tools—the specific type of situational dynamic or source of uncertainty they were designed to address.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard M. Adler, 2020. "Modeling and Simulation," Springer Books, in: Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences, chapter 0, pages 107-126, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-32714-9_8
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-32714-9_8
    as

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