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An Application of Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Agent-Based Models

In: Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Sotiris Papadelis

    (University of Piraeus (UNIPI))

  • Alexandros Flamos

    (University of Piraeus (UNIPI))

Abstract

In this chapter, a step-by-step application of calibrating an agent-based model is presented. In particular, an agent-based model for small-scale PV adoption was calibrated on the historical data for the small-scale solar PV capacity additions that took place in Greece from January 2010 to February 2013. The process of the model calibration allowed to (a) quantify and take into consideration uncertainties that are related to the characteristics and the decision-making criteria of the agents (i.e. independent PV power producers), in contrast to the more obvious uncertainties, such as technology costs, and (b) use the calibration results to explore the plausible—given the historical data—behaviour of the potential PV adopters in Greece under the new net-metering scheme (in effect as of mid-2015).

Suggested Citation

  • Sotiris Papadelis & Alexandros Flamos, 2019. "An Application of Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Agent-Based Models," Springer Books, in: Haris Doukas & Alexandros Flamos & Jenny Lieu (ed.), Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy, pages 79-95, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-03152-7_3
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-03152-7_3
    as

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