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Model Uncertainty Quantification

In: Model Calibration and Parameter Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Ne-Zheng Sun

    (University of California at Los Angeles, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering)

  • Alexander Sun

    (University of Texas at Austin, Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences)

Abstract

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the analytic process of determining the effect of input uncertainties (both their magnitudes and sources) on system outcomes. Traditionally applied in engineering reliability analysis, UQ now plays a significant role in environmental and water resource (EWR) applications as environmental engineers and modelers are increasingly involved in designing or permitting complex systems, including examining their long-term environmental impacts and providing decision support under risks. Risk analysis is the process of determining the consequence of uncertain and often undesirable outcomes. UQ provides inputs to risk analysis which, in turn, provides bases for decision making and for improving data collection design. UQ and risk analysis are integral and often required components of EWR applications nowadays.

Suggested Citation

  • Ne-Zheng Sun & Alexander Sun, 2015. "Model Uncertainty Quantification," Springer Books, in: Model Calibration and Parameter Estimation, edition 127, chapter 10, pages 407-458, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-1-4939-2323-6_10
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4939-2323-6_10
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