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On the Statistical Analysis of Floods

In: A Celebration of Statistics

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  • Luis Raúl Pericchi
  • Ignacio Rodríguez-Iturbe

Abstract

We deal with the problem of model selection for the representation of river floods. We concentrate on methods based on the series of maximum annual floods, and we analyze some features of the parametric models most widely used in hydrology. In particular we comment on the recommendation of the U.S. Federal interagency group to use the log-Pearson III distribution as the base model for estimating flood frequencies. We mention the limitations of classical goodness of fit procedures, and we propose simple methods based on the “flood rate” in order to make an initial screening of alternative models. We analyze historical data on five rivers in different continents. In Section 2 we outline the most common procedures. Section 3 is devoted to the study of two sets of historical data, and in Section 4 we introduce the “flood rate” criterion and we describe methods for testing and estimating it.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Raúl Pericchi & Ignacio Rodríguez-Iturbe, 1985. "On the Statistical Analysis of Floods," Springer Books, in: Anthony C. Atkinson & Stephen E. Fienberg (ed.), A Celebration of Statistics, chapter 0, pages 511-541, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-1-4613-8560-8_23
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4613-8560-8_23
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