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Accounting for Residual Value and the Probability of War When Estimating Cost-To-Effectiveness Ratios for Evaluating Alternative Military Weapon Systems

In: Cost Analysis and Estimating

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  • David Wollover

    (Applied Research, Inc.)

Abstract

This paper is concerned with Cost and Effectiveness studies that contrast weapon system candidates for specific missions within the context of a simulated broader war scenario. The following two issues are examined: (1) The concept of a weapon system’s Residual Value for inclusion to calculating cost-effectiveness ratios, and (2) Introduction of the influence of the Probability of War upon how the cost of war is counted toward cost-effectiveness study results. The conclusion of this paper is that cost-effectiveness modelling should consider both the most probable war scenario which will occur if deterrence fails as well as a sustained peacetime. It is hoped that this paper will invite beneficial debate surrounding the alternatives for linking cost and effectiveness indices.

Suggested Citation

  • David Wollover, 1991. "Accounting for Residual Value and the Probability of War When Estimating Cost-To-Effectiveness Ratios for Evaluating Alternative Military Weapon Systems," Springer Books, in: Roland Kankey & Jane Robbins (ed.), Cost Analysis and Estimating, chapter 7, pages 143-154, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-1-4612-3202-5_7
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4612-3202-5_7
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