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Betting

In: Risk and Reward

Author

Listed:
  • N. Richard Werthamer

    (University of New York)

Abstract

The crux of Chap. 3 is that the true count is a valuable clue to the expected return on the next round. But Player is concerned operationally only with how much to bet, not with the expected return: he really needs a rule for converting true count directly into bet size. Furthermore, the mental exertion of counting cards and adjusting bet size is only justified to the extent that it gives Player an overall advantage over the casino. An appropriate quantity by which to measure that advantage is the average, over all rounds between shuffles, of the product of the expected return and the bet size, weighted by their probability of occurrence; this is Player’s “yield,” or his average cash flow per round. The average over the shoe is necessary because the first (and probably several) rounds after a shuffle have a negative expected return (except for the single-deck game, as seen in Chap. 2). Only when enough of the shoe is dealt to permit sufficiently likely fluctuations in composition that result in a positive return, and the bet is increased correspondingly, can Player make up for his expected losses early in the shoe and achieve a positive yield.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Richard Werthamer, 2009. "Betting," Springer Books, in: Risk and Reward, chapter 0, pages 21-30, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-1-4419-0253-5_4
    DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4419-0253-5_4
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