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McKendrick and Kermack on epidemic modelling (1926–1927)

In: A Short History of Mathematical Population Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Bacaër

    (IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement))

Abstract

In 1926 McKendrick studied a stochastic epidemic model and found a method to compute the probability for an epidemic to reach a certain final size. He also discovered the partial differential equation governing age-structured populations in a continuous-time framework. In 1927 Kermack and McKendrick studied a deterministic epidemic model and obtained an equation for the final epidemic size, which emphasizes a certain threshold for the population density. Large epidemics can occur above but not below this threshold. These works are still very much used in contemporary epidemiology.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Bacaër, 2011. "McKendrick and Kermack on epidemic modelling (1926–1927)," Springer Books, in: A Short History of Mathematical Population Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 89-96, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-0-85729-115-8_16
    DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-115-8_16
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