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Intrinsic Uncertainty in the Study of Complex Systems: The Case of Choice of Academic Career

In: Systemics of Emergence: Research and Development

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Santa Ferretti

    (University of Pavia)

  • Eliano Pessa

    (University of Pavia)

Abstract

Usually the uncertainties associated to modeling complex systems arise from the impossibility of adopting a single model to describe the whole set of possible behaviours of a given system. It is, on the contrary, taken as granted that, once chosen a particular model (and whence renouncing to a complete knowledge about the system itself), every uncertainty should disappear. In this paper we will show, by resorting to an example related to the choice of academic career and to a structural equations modeling, that, even in this case, there is a further intrinsic uncertainty associated to the fact that algorithms used to make previsions give different answers as a function of adopted software, of the algorithm details, and of the degree of precision required. Such a further uncertainty prevents, in principle, from any attempt to reach a complete elimination of uncertainty within the study of complex systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Santa Ferretti & Eliano Pessa, 2006. "Intrinsic Uncertainty in the Study of Complex Systems: The Case of Choice of Academic Career," Springer Books, in: Gianfranco Minati & Eliano Pessa & Mario Abram (ed.), Systemics of Emergence: Research and Development, pages 417-426, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-0-387-28898-7_29
    DOI: 10.1007/0-387-28898-8_29
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