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Selecting a semi-parametric estimator by the expected log-likelihood

In: Probability, Statistics and Modelling in Public Health

Author

Listed:
  • Benoit Liquet

    (BHSM, Laboratoire de Statistique et Analyse des Données)

  • Daniel Commenges

    (Université Victor Segalen Bordeaux 2, INSERM E0338)

Abstract

A criterion for choosing an estimator in a family of semi-parametric estimators from incomplete data is proposed. This criterion is the expected observed log-likelihood (ELL). Adapted versions of this criterion in case of censored data and in presence of explanatory variables are exhibited. We show that likelihood cross-validation (LCV) is an estimator of ELL and we exhibit three bootstrap estimators. A simulation study considering both families of kernel and penalized likelihood estimators of the hazard function (indexed on a smoothing parameter) demonstrates good results of LCV and a bootstrap estimator called ELLbboot. When using penalized likelihood an approximated version of LCV also performs very well. The use of these estimators of ELL is exemplified on the more complex problem of choosing between stratified and unstratified proportional hazards models. An example is given for modeling the effect of sex and educational level on the risk of developing dementia.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoit Liquet & Daniel Commenges, 2006. "Selecting a semi-parametric estimator by the expected log-likelihood," Springer Books, in: Mikhail Nikulin & Daniel Commenges & Catherine Huber (ed.), Probability, Statistics and Modelling in Public Health, pages 332-349, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-0-387-26023-5_22
    DOI: 10.1007/0-387-26023-4_22
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