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Exploring Ellsberg’s Paradox in Vague-Vague Cases

In: Experimental Business Research

Author

Listed:
  • Karen M. Kramer

    (Edward Hines Jr. Veterans Administration Medical Center)

  • David V. Budescu

    (University of Illinois)

Abstract

We explore a generalization of Ellsberg’s paradox to the Vague-Vague (V-V) case, where neither of the probabilities (urns) is specified precisely, but one urn is always more precise than the other. We present results of an experiment explicitly designed to study this situation. The paradox was as prevalent in the V-V cases, as in the standard Precise-Vague (P-V) cases. The paradox occurred more often when differences between ranges of vagueness were large. Vagueness avoidance increased with midpoint for P-V cases, and decreased for V-V cases. Models that capture the relationships between vagueness avoidance and observable gamble characteristics (e.g., differences of ranges) were fitted.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen M. Kramer & David V. Budescu, 2005. "Exploring Ellsberg’s Paradox in Vague-Vague Cases," Springer Books, in: Rami Zwick & Amnon Rapoport (ed.), Experimental Business Research, chapter 0, pages 131-154, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-0-387-24244-6_6
    DOI: 10.1007/0-387-24244-9_6
    as

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