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A Survey of Composite Leading Indices for Russia

In: Business Cycles in BRICS

Author

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  • Sergey V. Smirnov

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

Available composite cyclical indicators for Russia are surveyed, and their components are enumerated and analyzed. The aims, guiding concepts, and approaches of the newly established Russian Economic Cycle Dating Committee are also described. All the currently available monthly composite leading indices (CLIs) are tested against the most recent cyclical turning points for their capacity to provide a timely alarm signal, especially about an impending recession. It is shown that experts’ informal judgments about Russia’s future economic trajectory remain more informative than findings derived from formal empirical rules. This suggests that there is some room for improvement of the Russian CLIs, and additional efforts should be made to construct better cyclical indicators for Russia.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey V. Smirnov, 2019. "A Survey of Composite Leading Indices for Russia," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 347-361, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:socchp:978-3-319-90017-9_21
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_21
    as

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