Typology and Principles of Dynamics of Revolutionary Waves in World History

Revolutionary waves are series of close in time revolutionary events which have common causes or act as causes for each other. This paper highlights the main types of waves (ideological waves, structural waves and wave-chains, large and small waves), and enumerates the full set of revolutionary waves over five centuries (27 waves). The waves are observed first in the context of the rhythms of modernization, and second, from the point of view of internal patterns influencing the fall of regimes’ legitimacy and the dynamics of revolutionary processes. A model describing the revolutionary waves’ dynamics shows how revolutionary success in “ripe” societies with a high level of instability and weak state power initiates revolutions in less “ripe” societies. But in the latter, the failure of riots to fully dispatch the regime disappoints potential rebels and dampens the wave. The “Springtime of Nations” in 1848–1849, the Asian waves of 1940–1960, and the “Arab Spring” of 2010–2012 are considered as the most prominent examples of waves of partially or wholly unsuccessful revolutions. The correlation between internal political dynamics and geopolitical conditions is revealed: we discuss the role of military success and failure, intensification of the crisis due to external defeats, the importance of dominating a key battlefield and access to key resources, the significance of choosing effective rhetorical techniques, the ability to consolidate supporters, and the need for international support (or neutrality as minimum) as well as the level of internal solidarity within a society. In different societies and circumstances, a revolutionary wave can lead either to accelerated modernization or to regress (counter-modernization), or to contradictory results.