Revolutions of the Twenty-First Century as a Factor in the World System Reconfiguration

At present the World System and world order are undergoing considerable transformations. Revolutions definitely will be an integral part of these systemic changes, therefore their numbers as well as the world-system effect are likely to be significant. In this chapter, Grinin analyzes in what way the twenty-first century revolutions examined in this volume may be connected with the transformations of the World System and world order. Leonid Grinin’s argument is based on his theory of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System, which tends to lag behind the economic component. Such gaps are eventually bridged, but not in a smooth way. On the contrary, this catch-up will usually be rather complex and turbulent. The twenty-first century revolutions appear to be part of a broad and conflict-ridden process of catch-up of the World-System’s political component to its economic component. This catch-up provokes strong structural transformations, which Grinin has described as the reconfiguration of the World System. He thinks that with the Arab Spring there started a reconfiguration of the World System that will remain associated with revolutionary processes in the twenty-first century. He expects that in connection with the political catch-up the number of revolutions as well as their role as a means of the world-system transformation will not decrease, and in some respects even may increase noticeably. Grinin analyzes the future of revolutions in terms of their typology and also of some other aspects, namely: (1) the evaluation of their number in comparison with the previous period; (2) their role as a tool defining the future progress of societies and the World System; (3) the depth and power of revolutions; (4) the possibility of revolutionary waves, and (5) possible changes of the forms of revolutionary events.