The Costs of Success and Return to the Past

Explaining the differences between mature and premature deindustrialisation, the author draws attention to the costs of the social policy of the Left-centrist governments: the premature deindustrialisation and the return of Brazil to the position of a primary goods’ supplier, vulnerable to market fluctuations. The chapter underlines that the reorientation of Brazil’s economic ties to China succeeded in making Brazil dependent on Chinese demand for primary goods. It slowed down the pace of agrarian reform under the Lula presidency, due to compromises with agribusiness: the main beneficiary of the commodities exports, for the sake of financing social programmes. The attempts to somewhat initiate an industrial policy are scrutinised in the chapter too. However, as the author demonstrates, these attempts did not succeed in expected outcomes.