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Adjusting the Predicted Aggregate Risks to Account for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks, Part 1: General Considerations, Cost, and Schedule

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  • Allan S. Benjamin

    (Allan Benjamin Company)

Abstract

The chapter provides guidance pertaining to the development of correlations for the adjustments needed to account for unknown and/or underappreciated (U/U) risk and for the uncertainty in each correlation. It does this by outlining the fundamentals of accounting for U/U risk as a contributor to the total aggregate risk; summarizing the principal leading indicators that have been found through many years of experience to correlate with the potential magnitude of the U/U risk; presenting correlations of historical data that provide insight into the potential contribution from U/U risk to the total aggregate cost of a program or project; and providing a helpful but nonprescriptive table of adjustments to the calculated cost of a program or project to account for U/U risk as a function of composite leading indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Allan S. Benjamin, 2025. "Adjusting the Predicted Aggregate Risks to Account for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks, Part 1: General Considerations, Cost, and Schedule," Risk, Governance and Society,, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:rischp:978-3-031-85070-7_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-85070-7_5
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