Strategy and Asia Pacific Futures

Strategic planning is dead – long live strategic planning! There is a resounding sense in contemporary global business circles that strategic planning simply does not work. This notion is fed by the overwhelming evidence of strategic plans that have not succeeded. Many perspectives on strategy exist. This may explain the vast amount of confusion in the area. Ultimately however, the most basic level of agreement amongst the different views is that ‘the future’ is at the core of strategy. In this age where change has changed and it is being marked as being in ‘postnormal times’, sound strategy has never been more important to global prosperity for all. Failing this, global inequity will increase. The purpose of business is facing a fundamental shift. Many do not and will not for some time recognise this. Those that do will prosper and have the best chance of navigating the discontinuity of change. Key to this is strategy. Strategy is complex but it is very intuitive. Humans are naturally endowed, to different degrees and strengths, to be strategic. As such, there is a ‘basic’ cognitive process that mirrors the development and execution of strategy which begins with understanding the future. Much has been written of the future and seemingly human endeavour has always sought to know it. Other than the possibility of spiritual enlightenment, the future cannot be known. It arises out of the present and the past no matter how discontinuous they are and as such, there are strands of knowledge that can allow a dedicated enquiry to anticipate how the future may unfold in different ways. This is not done in order to predict ‘the future’ but rather it seeks to broaden the scope of possibility by illustrating different future possibilities. Foresight is an inherent human capability. We exercise it without realizing it in our daily lives. We draw on the lessons and experiences of the past mostly in the form of norms and rules which influence our knowledge, assumptions and perceptions in the present. But, cognitively, humans increasingly fear the future. They are concerned about the obvious way in which climate is changing, society is demographically changing, the values of society are changing, power is changing and the way we do work is changing. The number of fears is as diverse and widespread as what can be imagined. This fear of the future, or future phobia, manifests itself in various coping mechanisms. The most obvious is to embrace the known. Alarmingly, it is increasingly clear that trading on the fear of the future is big business. A futures studies or futures research perspective is adopted in understanding the importance of foresight and strategic thinking as critical cognitive abilities of successful leaders. Images of the future guide human action and agency. In essence, a belief that the future can be influenced through human action lies at the heart of human agency and gives meaning to our existence. Obstacles to thinking about the future are also explored and identified in recognising that which threatens to limit human agency. The concept of strategy has been misappropriated from that which humans innately do; to think strategically. Thinking strategically is fundamental to the way humanity has evolved. The notion of strategy is linked closely to this human ability and is re-presented in its most basic meaning – a way of thinking about how to bridge the gap between the present and the future. Different approaches and views to strategy are presented and a dynamic model of the strategy process is suggested. The role of strategy level leaders is defined and contextualised within a dynamic model of strategy. This leads to questions related to the notions of strategic ambidexterity, innovation and disruption. Its link to organisational performance and decision making is considered especially in regards to leaders sensing the environment and intuitively considering the impact of their decisions. In considering the importance of sound strategy in the business futures of the Asia Pacific it is critical to address what strategy, in its most basic essence, means: It is enabled by leaders and it is their sole responsibility. It is both exploitative and explorative. It is driven and sustained by a shared vision (image) of an aspirational future. The incentive for Asia Pacific business leaders is that sound strategy is clearly associated with being able to navigate change, add certainty and ultimately lead to success.