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Calibrating Data

In: The Illusion of Control

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Vanhoucke

    (Ghent University)

Abstract

This chapter presents a new way to calibrate real project data to prepare them for academic use. Three different calibration methods are discussed to translate the data from real completed projects into probability distributions with accurate parameter estimates. With these distributions, accurate predictions can be made for new projects where, thanks to the use of real data during calibration, fewer (incorrect) assumptions have to be made. The calibration methods consist of a balanced mix of statistical hypothesis testing, methods for reducing human bias, and partitioning methods to split the projects into clusters. Computational experiments show that the accuracy of these calibration procedures reaches an impressive 97%.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Vanhoucke, 2023. "Calibrating Data," Management for Professionals, in: The Illusion of Control, chapter 0, pages 257-282, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:mgmchp:978-3-031-31785-9_14
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-31785-9_14
    as

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