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Comparison of Adoption Rates of Hydrogen, Hydrogen-Electric and SAF in the Future Air Transport System with a System Dynamics Model

In: Operations Research Proceedings 2022

Author

Listed:
  • Chetan Talwar

    (Technische Universität Braunschweig
    Institute of Automotive Management and Industrial Production, Technische Universität Braunschweig)

  • Imke Joormann

    (Technische Universität Braunschweig
    Institute of Automotive Management and Industrial Production, Technische Universität Braunschweig)

  • Thomas S. Spengler

    (Technische Universität Braunschweig
    Institute of Automotive Management and Industrial Production, Technische Universität Braunschweig)

Abstract

Aviation has been criticized for its negative climate impact in the past few years due to the emission of harmful greenhouse gasses (GHGs) such as CO2, NOx and water vapor that can cause the formation of climate harming ozone and contrails. In recent years, many different technologies have surfaced that have the potential to reduce emissions and replace the existing conventional jet fuel technology. On one hand, H2 powered aviation just recently regained high attention from the industry, e.g., Airbus launched the ZEROe program where they pledged to develop the world’s first zero-emission commercial aircraft by 2035. On the other hand, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) or biofuels have been identified as an alternative option. Given the different promising future technologies, it is difficult to predict their role in transition pathways that will lead the air transport system towards a more sustainable future. We develop a global scale system dynamics air transport system simulation model and incorporate components like the new potential technologies, production side emissions of new fuels, i.e., SAF and hydrogen, air travel demand, airline industry and aircraft manufacturers. We also include the long, medium and short haul segments of flights. Using this model, we analyze the adoption trends of new technologies and fuels by assessing the amount of fleet operated with them and its effect on emission reduction within each flight segment.

Suggested Citation

  • Chetan Talwar & Imke Joormann & Thomas S. Spengler, 2023. "Comparison of Adoption Rates of Hydrogen, Hydrogen-Electric and SAF in the Future Air Transport System with a System Dynamics Model," Lecture Notes in Operations Research, in: Oliver Grothe & Stefan Nickel & Steffen Rebennack & Oliver Stein (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2022, chapter 0, pages 597-602, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lnopch:978-3-031-24907-5_71
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-24907-5_71
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