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Uncertainty in the Future Nitrogen Load to the Baltic Sea Due to Uncertain Meteorological Conditions

In: Coping with Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Jerzy Bartnicki

    (Norwegian Meteorological Institute)

Abstract

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute has a long-term project with HELCOM Commission for regular calculation of annual atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea. In 2005, the institute received an additional project from HELCOM with the aim of estimating atmospheric nitrogen deposition to six sub-basins and catchments of the Baltic Sea for the year 2010, using nitrogen emission projections according to agreed emission ceilings under the EU National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive and the Gothenburg Protocol. Since, the meteorology for 2010 is unknown, model calculations were performed for four selected years with different meteorology: 1996, 1997, 1998 and 2000, which are available in the database. Final deposition values for the year 2010 were calculated as an average over the four selected years. In this way we were able to estimate the uncertainty restricted to meteorological variability. The ranges between minimum and maximum of calculated depositions to sub-basins and catchments are large indicating significant variation of the deposition depending on meteorological conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerzy Bartnicki, 2010. "Uncertainty in the Future Nitrogen Load to the Baltic Sea Due to Uncertain Meteorological Conditions," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Kurt Marti & Yuri Ermoliev & Marek Makowski (ed.), Coping with Uncertainty, chapter 0, pages 195-208, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-642-03735-1_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-03735-1_9
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