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Planning Sustainable Agricultural Development Under Risks

In: Coping with Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • G. Fischer

    (Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • T. Ermolieva

    (Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • L. Sun

    (Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

In this paper we show that explicit treatment of risks and uncertainties is an essential element in planning sustainable agricultural development. Introduction of risks and uncertainties in production models considerably alter strategies for achieving robust outcomes. We discuss stochastic models that may assist to derive optimal agricultural production allocation and expansion within environmental and health risk indicators. Approaches are illustrated with the example of spatially-explicit livestock production allocation in China to 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • G. Fischer & T. Ermolieva & L. Sun, 2010. "Planning Sustainable Agricultural Development Under Risks," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Kurt Marti & Yuri Ermoliev & Marek Makowski (ed.), Coping with Uncertainty, chapter 0, pages 209-227, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-642-03735-1_10
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-03735-1_10
    as

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