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Impact of Credit Risk and Business Cycles on Momentum Returns

In: Handbook of Recent Advances in Commodity and Financial Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Sirajum Munira Sarwar

    (Bentley University)

  • Sharon Xiaowen Lin

    (Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southampton)

  • Yaz Gülnur Muradoǧlu

    (University of London)

Abstract

In this paper, we show that significant momentum returns generate from credit-rated stocks across business cycles. The generation of momentum earned from speculative-grade stocks is on average 1.27% per month and are more prevalent during contraction periods in which they earn 1.61% per month. We also find that investment-grade stocks earn on average momentum returns of 0.85% per month and 1.14% per month during contractions. Higher momentum returns are unexplained by macroeconomic variables during contractions such as the 2008 recession. Our findings conclude that momentum return is due to high uncertainty associated with the increased credit risk of stocks and across business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Sirajum Munira Sarwar & Sharon Xiaowen Lin & Yaz Gülnur Muradoǧlu, 2018. "Impact of Credit Risk and Business Cycles on Momentum Returns," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Giorgio Consigli & Silvana Stefani & Giovanni Zambruno (ed.), Handbook of Recent Advances in Commodity and Financial Modeling, chapter 0, pages 17-39, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-319-61320-8_2
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-61320-8_2
    as

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