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Judgmental Interventions and Behavioral Change

In: Judgment in Predictive Analytics

Author

Listed:
  • Fotios Petropoulos

    (University of Bath)

  • Konstantinos Nikopoulos

    (Durham University)

Abstract

Previous empirical studies have shown that a simple combination of the formal (statistical) forecast and its judgmentally revised counterpart (expert forecast) can lead to a more accurate final forecast. However, it is argued that a further adjustment of the expert adjusted forecast would ultimately lead to a long-term change of forecasters’ behavior. Expecting that forecasters will not act hyper-rational to reach an equilibrium, the degree of their behavior change is not easy to be estimated. In this study, we try to assess the degree of this behavior change through a laboratory experiment. The adjustments of experts, with and without a 50–50% combination of system-expert forecast being occurred, are recorded and analyzed. We observe that the experts’ adjustments increase in size once they are informed that a subsequent adjustment takes place; one that essentially halves the expert adjustment. In other words, participants in our experiment try to mitigate for that further adjustment and retain the ownership of the final forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Fotios Petropoulos & Konstantinos Nikopoulos, 2023. "Judgmental Interventions and Behavioral Change," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Matthias Seifert (ed.), Judgment in Predictive Analytics, chapter 0, pages 115-131, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-031-30085-1_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-30085-1_5
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